diff --git a/src/backup/rotation.py b/src/backup/rotation.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..545a56b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/backup/rotation.py
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+from collections.abc import Iterable
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+
+# (période, horizon) pour les paliers à période fixe
+_FIXED_TIERS = (
+    (timedelta(hours=1), timedelta(hours=12)),  # horaire / 12 h
+    (timedelta(hours=12), timedelta(hours=72)),  # 12 h / 72 h
+    (timedelta(days=1), timedelta(days=21)),  # quotidien / 21 j
+)
+_MONTHLY_HORIZON = 12  # mois calendaires
+
+
+def _select_fixed(timestamps, now, period, horizon):
+    cutoff = now - horizon
+    buckets: dict[int, datetime] = {}
+    for t in timestamps:
+        if t > now or t < cutoff:
+            continue
+        idx = int((now - t) // period)
+        if idx not in buckets or t > buckets[idx]:
+            buckets[idx] = t
+    return set(buckets.values())
+
+
+def _month_index(d: datetime) -> int:
+    return d.year * 12 + (d.month - 1)
+
+
+def _select_monthly(timestamps, now):
+    now_idx = _month_index(now)
+    buckets: dict[int, datetime] = {}
+    for t in timestamps:
+        if t > now:
+            continue
+        idx = _month_index(t)
+        if idx > now_idx or now_idx - idx >= _MONTHLY_HORIZON:
+            continue
+        if idx not in buckets or t > buckets[idx]:
+            buckets[idx] = t
+    return set(buckets.values())
+
+
+def select_retained(timestamps: Iterable[datetime], now: datetime) -> set[datetime]:
+    items = list(timestamps)
+    retained: set[datetime] = set()
+    for period, horizon in _FIXED_TIERS:
+        retained |= _select_fixed(items, now, period, horizon)
+    retained |= _select_monthly(items, now)
+    return retained
diff --git a/tests/backup/test_rotation.py b/tests/backup/test_rotation.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..849be23
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/backup/test_rotation.py
@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+from src.backup.rotation import select_retained
+
+NOW = datetime(2026, 6, 24, 12, 0, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+
+
+def test_most_recent_always_kept():
+    ts = [NOW, NOW - timedelta(hours=2)]
+    assert NOW in select_retained(ts, NOW)
+
+
+def test_recent_hours_kept_by_hourly_tier():
+    t = NOW - timedelta(hours=3)
+    assert t in select_retained([t], NOW)
+
+
+def test_two_backups_same_hour_keep_newest():
+    older = NOW - timedelta(hours=2, minutes=50)
+    newer = NOW - timedelta(hours=2, minutes=10)
+    retained = select_retained([older, newer], NOW)
+    assert newer in retained
+    assert older not in retained
+
+
+def test_daily_tier_keeps_old_daily_backup():
+    t = NOW - timedelta(days=10)
+    assert t in select_retained([t], NOW)
+
+
+def test_monthly_tier_keeps_one_per_calendar_month():
+    older = NOW - timedelta(days=40)  # mois M-2 ou M-1 selon calendrier
+    same_month_newer = older + timedelta(days=2)
+    retained = select_retained([older, same_month_newer], NOW)
+    # même mois calendaire -> seul le plus récent du mois est conservé
+    assert same_month_newer in retained
+    assert older not in retained
+
+
+def test_keeps_backup_within_12_months():
+    t = NOW - timedelta(days=300)
+    assert t in select_retained([t], NOW)
+
+
+def test_drops_backup_older_than_12_months():
+    t = NOW - timedelta(days=400)
+    assert t not in select_retained([t], NOW)
+
+
+def test_future_timestamps_ignored():
+    t = NOW + timedelta(hours=1)
+    assert t not in select_retained([t], NOW)